This election is not yet over, and I am uncomfortable with tempting fate by making rash predictions. However, I am an idiot of I do not acknowledge that at this moment Barack Obama is in a dominant position in this presidential race.

State-by-state polling reveals an electoral map tilted strongly towards Barack Obama. Obama has not radically and fundamentally reshaped the electoral map, but has pushed it to its limits in his favor. Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, all states that went for President Bush in 2004, appear highly likely, if not near-certainties, to go for Obama this time around. Close behind these three are Virginia, with its largely liberal northern suburbs, and Nevada, with a suddenly huge Democratic registration advantage. Most impressively, two days before the election Obama is running in dead heats or a little bit ahead in Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana, all thought to be solidly Republican. Obama even has an outside shot at winning Montana, and if black turnout really explodes, Georgia as well.

John McCain, on the other hand, has since mid-September had extremely limited success at challenging Obama for states won by Senator John Kerry in 2004. While at the beginning of September it looked like Michigan could be this cycle’s Florida/Ohio, McCain has now long since gone dark there. Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania likewise looked like they could be close in late summer have since seemed to solidify for Obama, though McCain has as yet refused to give up hope of winning Pennsylvania. I guess you can’t blame him; if McCain is going to win the presidency, he’ll have to pull some huge upsets in big states and Pennsylvania is one of them. He’s managed to keep Florida and Ohio relatively close while showering attention on the Keystone State. New Hampshire, which has so long shown such an affinity for McCain and his brand of politics, has remained fairly competitive but is most likely to go for Obama on Tuesday.

One of the main reasons for the map’s steep tilt towards Obama is the huge financial disparity between the two candidates. John McCain has had his spending from the convention to Election Day limited to the $84 million in public funds he accepted; Obama, on the other hand, opted out of the public financing system and raised $150 million in September alone. He has consistently had a large advantage in airtime over McCain in every swing state, including at much as a ratio of 8 to 1 in some areas. And he has been able to advertise across the nation since the summer while McCain has had to pick and choose far more. This has accrued to Obama’s advantage most apparently in North Carolina and Florida, both states expected as late as mid-September to go for John McCain that are now dead-even if not leaning in Obama’s direction.

The enthusiasm gap between the two parties and candidates has also given Obama a distinct advantage. Obama’s campaign has recruited huge numbers of volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls to undecided voters, both hugely important to the campaign’s turnout operation. Volunteers have also helped to register hundreds of thousands of likely Democratic voters, especially young voters and African Americans, large turnout among which would prove key to Obama victories in several battleground states. Obama has far more offices than McCain in many battleground states, many of which are far more active than corresponding McCain campaign offices in the same area. All of this, along with the huge financial resources at Obama’s disposal, have turned his campaign into a different animal entirely, something with greater size and power than anything in US political history. How was McCain’s campaign supposed to compete?

But all of the above, while important in determining the election’s outcome, are not as responsible for the current state of the race as the messages projected in the past month or two by the candidates themselves. In the last month and a half since the financial crisis, McCain’s campaign has been defined in the public mind by attacks on Obama’s connection to Bill Ayers, shout-outs to Joe the Plumber, and tirades on the Illinois senator’s purported desire to “spread the wealth”. This is a problem for McCain’s campaign. In a time of crisis, while Obama has hammered home his message of a renewed focus on helping the middle class, McCain was rarely seen as focusing on little else but his opponent.

Down 8-12 points with time running out, getting a little aggressive made sense, but in the midst of it he forgot to offer a coherent alternative vision for America. This is partly due to the financial disparity between the two candidates, as Obama could run several ads varying in tone in a given area. Regardless, there has been only one serious presidential candidate in the last few months; Obama has appeared calm, thoughtful, and in command since the financial crisis, while McCain has seemed like an angry sideshow, not a credible alternative. More than any other reason, this is why, barring a massive sudden change in voter preferences in the next two days, Barack Obama will be elected the 44th President of the United States.