Today’s primary in Indiana essentially assured the existence of the Limbaugh Democrat. I hate to give Rush Limbaugh any credit, but “Operation Chaos” has succeeded. It’s not quite possible to determine the extent to which his plan to prolong the race has skewed the results in Indiana, but the exit polls show that a potentially large amount of crossover voters have no intention of supporting the candidate in November for which they voted in May.

I will lead with one caveat: Limbaugh Democrats may very well have such an inflated ego that they make sure to tell the persons conducting the exit polls of the deed they have done and, in effect, contribute to an overstated estimate of their effect. That is just a guess, though my assumption based on the numbers is that they did have an effect.

Here’s what we can gather from CNN’s Indiana primary exit polls:

• Republicans made up 11 percent of all primary voters.
• About 7 percent of all primary voters who voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton today plan to vote for Sen. John McCain in the fall. (This can be drawn from the picture shown at the top of the story.) These would seem to be Limbaugh Democrats. This was also pointed out here and here.
• About 2.3 percent of all primary voteres who voted for Sen. Barack Obama today plan to vote for McCain as well.
• From these two numbers we can figure that around 9.25 percent of all voters in Indiana’s primary — and 84 percent of all Republicans who voted — were essentially trying to tamper with the results.
• Between the number of voters who voted for either Clinton or Obama (and plan to vote for McCain), Clinton enjoys a margin of +4.7 percent. (The articles I linked earlier suggest a Limbaugh effect of +7 for Clinton, but +4.7 is more accurate, as some Limbaugh Democrats appear to have crossed over for Obama, as well.)

As I write this, Obama is behind Clinton by 4 percent with 88 percent of the vote counted. Without the potential 4.7 percent Limbaugh effect, Obama could very well be winning (assuming Clinton’s lead remains the same) and he can definitely make the argument that (a) he would have won without the effect and (b) the primary needs to end soon, as the results from here forward will all be somewhat tainted.

Now, I will compare the exit polls from Indiana to the 7 other open primaries for which CNN’s exit polls provide data stating the percentage of Republican voters. The additional states that fulfill these requirements are: Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin. (Note: Edwards’ share of the Republican vote in S.C. — 1.72 percent of all primary voters — has been subtracted.)

Percentage of all participating voters that identify themselves as Republicans:

• Indiana: 11 percent
• Earlier states: 7.2 percent

Percentage of Republicans who voted for Obama:

• Indiana: 45 percent
• Earlier states: 58.1 percent

The 11 percent of Republicans voting in Indiana’s Democratic primary was the second-highest figure in the Democratic primaries. As such, the Limbaugh effect was more prevalent in the Indiana primary than in earlier open primaries. However, it was also present in other states, most notably Mississippi. Here, Republicans made up 12 percent of all primary voters and only 25 percent voted for Obama. If you subtract both Indiana and Mississippi, Republicans would make only 6.4 percent of all primary voters and 63.6 percent would have supported Obama.

Earlier in the race for the Democratic nomination, it was largely assumed that Republicans were voting for Obama 2-1 over Clinton. The 63.6 percentage figure would seem to back up this notion.

I think it’s safe to assume that the media’s nonstop coverage of the Jeremiah Wright controversy may have in some way contributed to an erosion of support for Obama among Republicans, but this cannot possibly be the main culprit. The Limbaugh effect indisputably exists.

So, congratulations Rush. I hope you’re enjoying this. It’s really too bad you don’t like your party’s nominee.

Update: Keith Olbermann is telling viewers that the Limbaugh effect hasn’t worked, as Republicans only went to Clinton 52-48 percent. But when you compare Obama’s 48 percent to the share of Republican vote he has received in the other open primaries, you can see that Operation Chaos did indeed have an effect.

Update 2.0: Rush Limbaugh’s moderate success last night has gone to his head. “I now urge the Democratic superdelegates to go publicly make your mind up for Obama,” Limbaugh said, because he now believes Obama would be the weaker nominee.

Real original idea, Rush. See, the prevailing thought today — starting last night — is that superdelegates will now begin to move over to Obama. You didn’t come up with this idea, so you’re just a pompous blowhard if you try to take credit for something you have not even the slightest control over. We knew that already, though.