With the pressured departure of chief strategist Mark Penn, Geoff Garin will step into the shoes of his heavily criticized predecessor, causing many to ask - whether strategic changes will actually occur. Judging by Garin’s relatively honest approach to political strategy prior to joining the Clinton campaign in mid-March, the possibility for an energized Clinton campaign remains; However Garin may already have his doubts on Sen. Hillary Clinton’s chances.In a February 13 interview with PBS’s Judy Woodruff, when asked if Clinton was smart to rest her campaign’s future on Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Garin had this to say:

“You know, she’s got no place else to go. And if she doesn’t win there, I think the ranks of the super-delegates and other party leaders will begin to close around Obama, and he will distance himself.”“And with a system of proportional representation, if you fall behind, there’s no way for a second-place candidate to catch up.”

In this conversation, less than two months before being hired by the Clinton campaign, the longtime democratic pollster put forth an argument surprisingly similar to that of many Obama supporters. As predicted by Garin, Sen. Barack Obama has pulled away from Clinton following numerous consecutive primary wins. Superdelegates then flocked towards Obama, cutting Clinton’s lead from 97 on February 10 to a shocking 24 on April 6 - netting an impressive 73 superdelegates.In the aforementioned interview Garin also argued that once behind, chances of catching up are nearly impossible. Garin at this point seemed to be in agreement with many political strategists who find it improbable for Clinton to keep pace with Obama. Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic, for one, has taken many mathematical scenarios into account and has concluded that Clinton will need a huge political gaffe from Obama to even have a chance at the lead.In the same February 13 interview, Garin gave an unsolicited piece of advice to the Clinton campaign - one that they did not heed in the slightest.

“And if I were Hillary Clinton, the last thing I’d be doing is talking about super delegates, because the voters don’t want to hear that. They don’t want to hear about this going to the convention. She really needs to make the case about why she’s the better candidate to lead the country.”

With recent reports of both Bill and Hillary Clinton pugnaciously teaming up on superdelegates, Garin’s analysis once again seems to be flawless. As we see Clinton continually focus on her one remaining, yet dwindling lead, we also see voters turned off by the technicalities of this long and drawn out democratic primary.When asked if he thought the race would continue to the convention, Garin remarked that he bets it will be “resolved sooner than that.” Given the above analysis, this pre-convention resolution is turning out to favor his employer’s opponent.In an interview with NPR just one day later, Garin warned the Clinton camp of Obama’s growing momentum.

“If I were in the Clinton camp, I would be worried that the energy Barack Obama is building up now will overwhelm the demographics that had previously kept anybody from building up any real momentum,” Garin said. “And, the Clinton campaign needs to be developing that kind of emotional energy itself.”

Soon after, Obama - once again satisfying Garin’s predictions - started chipping away at Clinton’s slice of the electorate. By winning low-income families and middle class voters in Wisconsin, and barely losing white women to Clinton, Obama proved that Clinton had not concretely secured her core demographics.In a later March 5 interview with AP, Garin seemed to contradict his previously made predictions, perhaps preparing for a job in a flailing Clinton campaign presented a mere two weeks later. “Ohio is a good reminder that in 2008, the candidate who wins the economy will win the election,” Garin declared. Being an experienced pollster, he had to have known that Obama was lacking trust among Ohioans and was predicted to lose.After the resignation of Mark Penn, an April 7 Washington Post article quoted Garin as a confident leader in the Clinton camp.

Garin said Sunday night that it was “way too early for me to say” whether there will be significant changes in Clinton’s campaign strategy. “We’ve got a lot to prove, and we intend to prove it,” he said.He stressed the need for Clinton to win the final primaries, saying that doing so could have a significant effect on how Democrats evaluate the two candidates.”The important thing is just to win,” he said. “My view is the campaign has to focus on the work of April and May and the early part of June and do well at all of that. So at one level, first things first.”

It will be interesting to see how the Clinton campaign deals with new leadership. Numerous references have been made to intense bickering among Clinton’s staff under Penn and his exit might allow Garin to refocus the Clinton camp. However, given comments made earlier in the year, Garin may have reservations when continuing forward as a second-place candidate. Moreover, believing the race will end before the convention, when it is nearly mathematically impossible for Clinton to secure the lead, does not play into Clinton’s “fight till the end” mindset. How will Garin confront this blatant hypocrisy?The million-dollar question is, what will Mark Penn’s role be in the remaining months? From Garin’s past criticism, and Penn’s poor job thus far, he may have input on what should happen next. But from the looks of it, not many in the Clinton camp will listen.Garin has a tough fight ahead of him, not only against the front-runner, Sen. Barack Obama, but also against his own admissions of reality.